MyHockeyRankings published its Week 3 Massachusetts rankings today. Three lists matter to the classes we cover: 16U Tier 1 and 16U Tier 2 for the 2010s, and 15U Tier 1 for the 2011s. Eight teams from each reach the Massachusetts state tournament, so from here on we publish the top ten in every tier — the eight in, and the two closest to getting there.
Each tier is covered on its own below. They are three separate races with nothing riding between them, so read the one your season is in.
How the weekly cycle works. The lists come out Wednesdays and clubs post their results through Tuesday. A score posted late can appear in a team's record before it has been factored into that team's rating, so we publish each record as it stands and never calculate how a team did over a given weekend. The rank is the reliable number.
Why ranks and records disagree. MyHockeyRankings weighs who a team has played, not only what its record says. The Rating column is the number that orders each list — it is what separates eighth from ninth, and we publish it so the margins quoted below can be checked against the table rather than taken on trust. Across the three tiers, five of the twenty-four qualifying spots are currently held by teams with losing records. That is schedule strength at work, it is the most common question we get about these lists, and where it matters most is noted in each tier below.
The 18-game requirement. Massachusetts Hockey requires a team to play 18 games to be eligible for the state tournament, at every tier and both age groups. That makes games played a second race running underneath the rankings, and it is why we have added a GP column to every table this week. A figure shown in amber means that team has not yet reached 18. Ten of the thirty teams on these lists have reached it; the other twenty are still working toward it with the November deadline coming.
Nobody at the top of this tier gave an inch, and they are doing it on the heaviest schedules in the division. Middlesex Islanders East (Prep) and the Neponset Valley River Rats have each played 21 games, more than any other team at 16U Tier 1, and both held position for a second straight week. East Coast Militia (National) sit third. The top five did not move at all; only two teams on the list moved.
| Rank | Team | Record | GP | Rating | vs Wk 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesex Islanders East (Prep) 16U AAA | 16-4-1 | 21 | 93.97 | – |
| 2 | Neponset Valley River Rats 16U AAA | 13-6-2 | 21 | 93.81 | – |
| 3 | East Coast Militia (National) 16U AAA | 8-5-2 | 15 | 92.27 | – |
| 4 | South Shore Kings 16U AAA | 11-5-2 | 18 | 90.55 | – |
| 5 | Cape Cod Whalers 16U AAA | 4-9-1 | 14 | 90.32 | – |
| 6 | American Hockey Academy 16U AAA | 7-6-1 | 14 | 89.29 | ▲ 2 |
| 7 | Boston Americans 16U AAA | 7-5-3 | 15 | 89.27 | – |
| 8 | Central Mass Penguins 16U AAA | 7-1-2 | 10 | 89.14 | ▼ 2 |
| State Tournament cut line — top 8 qualify9th and 10th on the outside | |||||
| 9 | Springfield Jr Thunderbirds (National) 16U AAA | 8-8-2 | 18 | 88.35 | – |
| 10 | East Coast Wizards 16U AAA | 6-8-1 | 15 | 87.19 | – |
Four of these ten have reached 18 games. Islanders East and the River Rats at 21, South Shore Kings and Springfield Jr Thunderbirds at 18. Every other team on the list still has schedule to burn before the November deadline, and for most of them it is three or four games.
For Central Mass Penguins it is eight. They own the best winning percentage at the tier at 7-1-2 and they sit eighth, the last qualifying position — but they have played ten games, the fewest of anyone in the top ten and half of what the two clubs above them have logged. That is a rating built on the smallest sample in the division, and it has the furthest still to travel. Eight more games is a lot of exposure for a 0.79 cushion.
That is the real tension at 16U Tier 1 this fall. The three clubs at the top are not just winning, they are accumulating — stacking results against a schedule deep enough that a bad weekend barely moves them. The clubs beneath them are carrying thinner résumés into a stretch where every remaining game counts twice: once toward the rating, once toward the 18.
Sixth, seventh and eighth are separated by 0.15 in total, with American Hockey Academy ahead of Boston Americans by two hundredths of a point. At the very top, Islanders East stretched their lead over the River Rats from 0.06 to 0.16, the clearest rating move at the head of this tier all season. And Cape Cod Whalers, at 4-9-1, are the only losing record inside the cut — the sharpest example of schedule strength at 16U Tier 1, and a reminder that who you play counts as much here as whether you win.
The cut line at 16U Tier 2 has effectively disappeared. Worcester Jr Railers (Elite) hold the eighth and final qualifying spot at 84.85. Boston Jr Terriers (O'Leary) are ninth at 84.82. Boston Jr Huskies (Beshwaty) are tenth at 84.81. Three teams inside four hundredths of a point, all three with losing records, and a single weekend capable of reordering them.
| Rank | Team | Record | GP | Rating | vs Wk 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston Jr Eagles 16U AAA | 9-6-2 | 17 | 88.00 | – |
| 2 | Bay State Breakers 16U AAA | 8-1-3 | 12 | 87.41 | – |
| 3 | North Suburban Wings (Hentosh) 16U AA | 12-3-0 | 15 | 87.21 | ▲ 1 |
| 4 | South Shore Kings 16U AA | 10-2-1 | 13 | 87.02 | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | Boston Advantage (Prep) 16U AA | 8-8-3 | 19 | 86.14 | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | South Shore Dynamos 16U AA | 18-1-0 | 19 | 85.91 | ▲ 2 |
| 7 | Middlesex Islanders East (American) 16U AA | 7-3-3 | 13 | 85.54 | – |
| 8 | Worcester Jr Railers (Elite) 16U AAA | 2-8-3 | 13 | 84.85 | ▼ 3 |
| State Tournament cut line — top 8 qualify9th and 10th on the outside | |||||
| 9 | Boston Jr Terriers (O'Leary) 16U AA | 4-9-2 | 15 | 84.82 | ▲ 1 |
| 10 | Boston Jr Huskies (Beshwaty) 16U AA | 3-10-1 | 14 | 84.81 | ▼ 1 |
Worcester fell three places, from fifth to eighth, which is what compressed the bubble — a 2-8-3 team is now defending the last spot against a 4-9-2 team and a 3-10-1 team.
This is the thinnest tier in the state on games played. Only two of these ten have reached 18 — Boston Advantage (Prep) and South Shore Dynamos, both at 19. Everyone else is short, including every team in the top four. Boston Jr Eagles need one more game to be eligible; Bay State Breakers, second at 8-1-3, have played twelve and need six. With the bubble this tight, a club that runs out of calendar before it runs out of games has a problem no rating can fix.
One caveat specific to this tier. Several clubs here posted results after Tuesday's cutoff, so a few of the records above include games that have not yet reached the ratings. The order at the bubble is more provisional this week than the three-hundredths gap makes it look, and some of it will settle on Wednesday without a puck being dropped.
South Shore Dynamos are 18-1-0 and ranked sixth. That is the best record on any of the three lists at either age group, and this week it earned a two-spot climb rather than a seat at the top. They were eighth a week ago, on the line; they are clear of it now. Above them, North Suburban Wings (Hentosh) at 12-3-0 moved up to third, and Boston Jr Eagles hold No. 1 for a third straight week at 9-6-2 — the only team in the tier's top four without a winning percentage near .800, and the clearest case at 16U Tier 2 of schedule strength carrying a rating.
Masters Academy are the new No. 1, and the two teams at the top are rated the same. Masters and Middlesex Islanders East (Prep) both sit at 91.85; MyHockeyRankings has Masters first. Islanders East had held the top spot since the first list of the season. They remain first at 16U Tier 1, but they are no longer first at both age groups.
| Rank | Team | Record | GP | Rating | vs Wk 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masters Academy 15U AAA | 11-5-0 | 16 | 91.85 | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | Middlesex Islanders East (Prep) 15U AAA | 14-2-2 | 18 | 91.85 | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | Boston Jr Eagles 15U AAA | 14-6-0 | 20 | 91.38 | – |
| 4 | Northeast Generals 15U AAA | 9-6-4 | 19 | 90.38 | – |
| 5 | Neponset Valley River Rats 15U AAA | 5-9-3 | 17 | 89.58 | – |
| 6 | Cape Cod Whalers 15U AAA | 8-9-2 | 19 | 89.45 | – |
| 7 | Boston Americans 15U AAA | 8-1-1 | 10 | 87.61 | – |
| 8 | East Coast Militia (National) 15U AAA | 7-9-1 | 17 | 87.58 | – |
| State Tournament cut line — top 8 qualify9th and 10th on the outside | |||||
| 9 | Greater Boston Jr Bruins 15U AAA | 10-3-1 | 14 | 86.15 | – |
| 10 | Bay State Breakers 15U AAA | 6-1-0 | 7 | 85.93 | – |
Below the top two, nothing moved: ranks three through ten are unchanged from Week 2. Greater Boston Jr Bruins are 10-3-1 and still ninth, and the gap they need to close more than doubled. Bay State Breakers are 6-1-0 and tenth.
The widest games-played gap in the state is at this tier. Bay State Breakers are 6-1-0 and tenth — on seven games. They need eleven more to be eligible for the state tournament, more than any team at any tier, and they are chasing a cut line at the same time. Boston Americans are seventh on ten games and need eight. Four of these ten have reached 18, and the two clubs with the prettiest records are the two furthest from the requirement.
Inside the cut ahead of them are three teams with losing records — the River Rats at 5-9-3, Cape Cod Whalers at 8-9-2 and East Coast Militia (National) at 7-9-1. It is the clearest schedule-strength split of the three tiers, and the one most likely to resolve on the ice, because the teams below the line have games left against the teams above it.
Club affiliations change, and a player's club is not the same thing as his prep school. This list says only that each of these schools has at least one tracked player on a Massachusetts Tier 1 or Tier 2 roster this fall.